On The Mobile Web, Market Share Doesn't Matter

mobile in a train station
Thanks to dearbarbie for the picture.

Market analysts, commentators and pundits love to talk about the mobile web. Their opinions are often based on device market share data: hard measurements of product sales and consumer buying patterns. But for the mobile web, those are the wrong numbers to look at.

We can illustrate why by cross referencing data from the latest comScore market share report with recent Stats Counter web usage results:

Platform Total Market Share (%) Smartphone Market Share (%) Mobile Web Usage (%)
Symbian OS (Nokia) 8.1 * 1.46
iOS (iPhone) 5.8 [1] 24.2 25 [2]
RIM 9.0 37.6 32.8 [3]
Android 4.7 19.6 16.9
Samsung (non-Android) 23.4 [4] * 2.47
webOS (Palm) 1.1 4.6 1.33
LG 21.2 * < 1

(* indicates share is significantly below 5%.)

Mobile Web Up analysis based on public data from comScore, StatsCounter, QuantCast and GetJar.

These numbers tell us that total market share has little to do with how much people use a device to browse the mobile web. Some mobile platforms with low market share see very high mobile web use.

A much better predictor is smartphone market share. But even that is imperfect. With the iPhone, the percentages for smartphone market share, and for its share of total mobile web use, are roughly equal. But that measure overestimates the actual web usage for Blackberry (RIM) and Android.

For your own mobile web strategy, ask yourself what mobile platforms your market is using most to go online. Look at actual consumer behavior, as measured by mobile web use. This will be different depending on your business [5]. Ideally you will be able to leverage statistics from your existing web services.

One thing is certain: the mobile web will only become more important to your organization's success. From now on, EVERY year is “the year of the mobile web”!

[1] An estimated 234 million Americans have mobile phones; of those, an estimated 55.7 million have smartphones. From this ratio, the iPhone's smartphone market share of 24.2% is a total market share of 5.8%. (source: comScore study)
[2] Total iPhone OS usage in July 2010 was reported as 37.99%. How much of this was on the iPhone, and how much on the iPod touch? Based on related Quantcast data, the phone accounts for about two thirds of iPhone and iPod touch mobile web browsing hits. This predicts about 25% iPhone usage total.
[3] This proportion for Blackberry web usage is significantly higher than other marketing data sources suggest; a ratio of 3 to 1 for iPhone vs. Blackberry is more consistent - see this Quantcast study for example. Still, if Statscounter's numbers turn out to be overstating Blackberry web usage, it only strengthens this the points in this article.
[4] GetJar device statistics imply this number has risen to about .2% total for the two primary Samsung Android devices that had seen wide release in the USA as of mid-2010, the Behold II and Moment. This adjusts the comScore percentage for Samsung's market share from 23.6% down to 23.4.
[5] In many consumer applications, the iPhone sees greater use at this time than Android and Blackberry. But there are North American markets where this is not the case. For example, in mobile banking, Wells Fargo found the iPhone accounts for 30% of mobile access to their treasury services, with the majority of access (50%) coming from clients using BlackBerry phones.